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Published on December 19, 2014 by Gary Grappo

Few Common Interests Undermine US-Iran Cooperation in Iraq

Published first at Global Post on July 9, 2014

The United States seeks democracy and inclusive government while Iran looks for Shi’as to dominate Iraq. The blitzkrieg-like advance of the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham in Iraq and its successive victories in that country’s Anbar, Ninewah, Diyala and Salah al Din provinces have provoked fanciful speculation of cooperation between the US and […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy

Published on December 17, 2014 by Gary Grappo

Bush and Obama: Ignorance and Errors Compound Middle East Problems

Published first at Fair Observer on July 6, 2014

Neither Presidents George W. Bush nor Barak Obama can be accused of causing the the current crisis in Iraq. However, both bear responsibility for that nation’s current state of affairs. Both erred in failing to understand the historical nature and profound depth of Iraq and the region’s sectarianism and the ease with which idealists, ideologues […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy

Published on December 17, 2014 by Gary Grappo

Iraq: Collapse and Chaos in the Cradle of Civilization

Published first at Fair Observer on June 25, 2014

Iraq is collapsing. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has promised to respond. But the ease with which ISIS fighters took major cities and the shocking capitulation of the Iraqi army and police raise serious questions over Maliki’s leadership and the army’s capability. Outsiders, including Turkey, Iran, the US and even the Kurds, are making their […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy

Published on December 17, 2014 by Gary Grappo

Virtualizing the Syrian Revolution

Published first at Fikra Forum (Washington Institute for Near East Policy) on June 19, 2014

The U.S. approach to undermining Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has been surprisingly constrained and unimaginative. US military action in Syria can now be essentially disregarded. Still, the United States possesses one particularly effective weapon that it can deploy: advanced technology. The U.S. and others should begin immediately to create a virtual Syrian government-in-exile on the […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy

Published on December 17, 2014 by Gary Grappo

The Collapse of Iraq Would Open a New Front in the Sunni-Shia War

Published first at Global Post on June 16, 2014

The collapse of security on Iraq’s western and northern fronts portends a number of disturbing outcomes, from partitioning to, in a twist of irony, Iraq inviting Iranian troops to fill the role of the US before its withdrawal. Iraq is collapsing. The Middle Eastern nation, where nearly 4,500 American lives were lost and nearly one […]

Filed Under: Foreign Policy

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Could Trump’s Shocking Plan for Gaza Lead Anywhere?

February 7, 2025 By Gary Grappo

Experts say the president’s plan for Gaza as stated, isn’t feasible – but it could spark regional actors to take more action. BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT – As President Donald Trump doubles down on his idea of a U.S. takeover of Gaza, Arab governments are also doubling down on their objections and questions persist as to […]

Memo to the 47th President: A New and Dangerous Middle East

December 27, 2024 By Gary Grappo

EDITOR’S NOTE — Since Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 election, The Cipher Brief has reached out to our network of experts for thoughts on what the priorities ought to be for the second Trump administration. Our ask was straightforward: If you were given the opportunity of a short visit with the president during his first days in […]

Post-Assad Syria: ‘Now Comes the Hard Part’

December 27, 2024 By Gary Grappo

A Cipher Brief expert with deep experience in the Middle East sees both danger and an “extraordinary opportunity” in the wake of Assad’s fall. EXPERT INTERVIEW — The headlines would have seemed fanciful two weeks ago: “Rebel Army Ousts Assad” – “The Fall of Assad” – “Assad Flees to Russia” – or our own, from Sunday: “Syria’s Political […]

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