Lebanon today is occupied. It is reeling from political and economic collapse, widespread anti-government demonstrations, the coronavirus pandemic and, most recently, a 2,700-ton blast that leveled the port of Beirut. All of it may be laid at the feet of an entrenched, scandalously corrupt and colossally inept political class in partnership with the world’s most diabolical terrorist organization, Hezbollah.
Even before the August 4 Beirut port explosion, which took the lives of some 200 people and is prompting the exodus of thousands of Lebanese every day, Lebanon had been on a downward spiral. GDP fell by 14 percent last year and was on track for a further 24 percent decline in 2020. Now, its economic decline has moved into hyperdrive. Inflation has ballooned from 55 percent to a stratospheric 85 percent. The Lebanese lira-US dollar exchange rate – officially set at 1,500:1 but largely unavailable to almost all Lebanese – has plummeted to 7,000-8,000 on the black market. In a country once on par with many developed Western nations, power outages now reach as high as 22 hours per day. Equally bleak numbers for unemployment, homelessness and food insecurity further point to a nation in collapse. Given its inability to pay for fuel imports, its power sector faces imminent breakdown, which would likely lead to a complete shutdown of an already profoundly enfeebled economy.
Greed, Ambition and Corruption
The Lebanese prime minister and cabinet, only in office for eight months, resigned August 10. It was one in a string of governments unable to lead the nation. In fact, Lebanese governments exacerbated most of the nation’s problems through neglect, incompetence and corruption. But the turning point may have come when long-time political actor Michel Aoun’s Christian Maronite party, the Free Patriotic Movement, signed a memorandum of understanding with the notorious Shia militia cum political organization, Hezbollah. By 2011, the FPM occupied multiple cabinet posts and, working with its allies, most prominently Hezbollah, ultimately engineered the resignation of then Prime Minister Saad Hariri. In 2016, Aoun won a historic election and assumed the presidency after a near-two-and-a-half-year vacancy. Power cuts, water shortages, demonstrations, long garbage strikes, and massive street protests preceded his election.
Aoun and his son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, who served as foreign minister until January of this year, then set about with their Hezbollah allies to take control of Lebanon’s political and economic systems and fund all manner of illicit activities. Aoun and his allies’ political machinations combined with Hezbollah’s ruthlessness ensured that there would be few challengers, not even the Lebanese Armed Forces. Happy to siphon often billions for themselves, Aoun, the FMP and its supporters effectively ceded the country to Hezbollah, a terrorist organization.
From Militia to Resistance Force to Regional Mercenary Army
The road to this state of affairs can be traced back to the Taif Agreement that ended Lebanon’s brutal and deadly 15-year civil war in 1990. The agreement changed little of Lebanon’s political system that preceded the war other than giving equal representation to the country’s dominant confessions, Christians and Muslims. Importantly, it also stipulated the disarmament of all but one of the 22-odd militias engaged in the war. Rationalizing itself as a “resistance force” (against Israel) as opposed to a militia, Hezbollah alone was permitted to retain its weapons. Fully backed by Iran and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah proceeded to amass weapons and political clout unmatched even by the Lebanese armed forces.
Armed with its massive weapons stocks and revolutionary Shia Islamic zeal, Hezbollah has become an immensely effective mercenary force of Iran. This is most in evidence in Syria, beginning shortly after the start of that country’s civil war in 2011. Regime leader Bashar Al Assad faced imminent demise in 2015. But the fighters of Hezbollah, backed by Iran and then Russia, managed to reverse his fortunes and preserve his rule over a now devastated nation. Iran and Russia now call the shots in Syria with Assad relegated to front man for the broken state. Hezbollah made his salvation possible. As a result, Hezbollah has shown it is anything but a mere resistance force. It is a full-fledged mercenary army, headquartered in southern Lebanon.
Given Hezbollah’s impressive success in Lebanon, Iran set about to replicate the model with the “Hezbollahization” of militias in Iraq (Heshad Al Shabi, or Popular Mobilization Forces) and in Yemen (Ansar Al Sharia, aka, the Houthis). Hezbollah affiliates, operating with the knowledge, support and even guidance from Iran and the IRGC, are also said to be present in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.
An Army at War in Lebanon and the Middle East
There is no armed, non-state actor anywhere in the world comparable to Hezbollah. Even Al Qaida cannot match its firepower or global presence. With an estimated budget of close to a billion dollars, it fields some 25,000 to 30,000 active fighters and an equal number of reservists, most of whom are trained by IRGC cadre. It also maintains close ties with Shia militia groups in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Its arsenal rivals those of many national armed forces, with advanced anti-tank weapons likely numbering in the thousands, Chinese and Russian-made air defense weapons, more than 100,000 rockets and hundreds of short-range missiles. The latter categories of weapons are capable of striking anywhere in Israel.
Hezbollah is a sui generis organization without peer. The closest may actually be the almost comical SPECTRE (Special Executive for Counterintelligence, Terrorism, Revenge and Extortion) from the early James Bond films. Toss in revolution, instability, trafficking (guns, drugs and contraband) and assassination, and its global presence is similar to the fictional SPECTRE, but real and far more deadly and effective.
Its list of activities and actions boggles conventional thinking. A recent study by the Washington Institute for Middle East Policy, details in exhaustive fashion Hezbollah’s worldwide presence, including in the US, and involvement in and direction of hundreds of terrorist attacks. Its rap sheet of deadly attacks includes: the 1982 bombing in Tyre, killing 75 Israelis and 14 Arab prisoners; the 1983 suicide bombing of the US Embassy in Beirut killing 63 Americans, followed months later by the military barracks bombing in Beirut, killing 241 American and 58 French servicemen; 1992 truck bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, killing 29 Israelis; 1994 bombing of the Argentine-Israeli Mutual Association, killing 85 people; 1996 bombing of the Khobar Towers housing facility in Saudi Arabia, killing 19 US airmen; 2005 car bomb assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri and murder of 20 others; and the 2012 bomb attack on an Israeli tour bus in Bulgaria, killing five Israelis and the Bulgarian bus driver.
Hezbollah is also responsible for attacks against Israeli IDF positions in Israel, most notoriously an attack that sparked the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah with hundreds of deaths on both sides. Far from discouraging future attacks, the 2006 confrontation emboldened Hezbollah to carry out more attacks not only against Israeli forces and civilians but also against UN Interim Forces in Lebanon. It has engaged in armed conflicts in Syria and Iraq and directed actions of partner or affiliated organizations throughout the Middle East and North Africa.
Port of Beirut: Lebanon Case Study
The clearest example of the destructive and corrupting control of the kleptocratic elite of Lebanon and its Hezbollah abettors is the August 4 port explosion in Beirut. Since the ship’s Russian owner and crew abandoned the dangerous cargo in Beirut in 2013, a succession of Lebanese ministries, law enforcement authorities, police and courts officials have engaged in a bureaucratic pass-the-buck scheme, despite repeated warnings from port authorities and others of the threat of the dangerously explosive ammonium nitrate. The material was largely unprotected, improperly stored and unguarded for most of its time in the Beirut port warehouse.
Break-ins had been reported with the theft of unknown amounts of the explosive. Like elsewhere in Lebanon, various political interests controlled the port, notoriously known as one of the most corrupt. Smuggling, bribery, and kickback and payoff schemes were the norm. One report describes port and customs officials as “a gang, a mafia, appointed by a mafia gang that has come to office through an election process.”
The sclerotic, ineffective and disengaged nature of Lebanon’s leadership became most apparent in the weeks leading up to the explosion. President Aoun and then-Prime Minister Hassan Diab were warned in July of the presence of the dangerous material and its inadequate handling, storage and security. While he issued instructions to the State Security organization to “do what is needed,” he added dismissively that he had no authority over the port. He then referred the matter to the Higher Defense Council, Lebanon’s highest-level defense organization, where it apparently sat until August 4.
Hezbollah, as it does at Beirut International Airport, maintains outsized influence if not outright control at the port, giving rise to questions about the ultimate disposition and intended use of the explosive material. Given Hezbollah’s extensive experience with as well as numerous experts on explosive materials, one cannot resist asking about its role in and responsibility for the saga of the materials’ ending up at the port and poor storage. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah denied any role either in the storage of the material at the port or in the explosion, instead predictably pointing to Israel’s suspected role. Nevertheless, Lebanese of all persuasions continue to raise questions about the organization’s strongly suspected role.
Aid and Change
International organizations such as the IMF and World Bank and individual governments throughout Europe and the US had been working for months on an aid and reform package for the crippled state. Not surprisingly, the political leadership resisted adopting changes that would have altered governance in Lebanon and emasculated them of the power they need to continue bleeding Lebanon of much needed capital. As acute as both aid and reform were needed before August 4, they are indispensable now for the country’s survival.
However, in considering the aid amounts and types, two vital actions must also be considered. First, the ruling elites from Aoun down must leave under the promise of hard-hitting UN Security Council sanctions and, at the very least, the US Global Magnitsky Act sanctions. These must include application of secondary and even tertiary sanctions on those who do business or engage with these individuals in any capacity. The EU should be persuaded to impose similar sanctions, which would effectively prevent these individuals from doing business or banking anywhere in the US or Europe.
Even more important, the international community must correct the flaw of the Taif Agreement, its failure to disarm Hezbollah. Therefore, it must add an enforcement mechanism to UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which called for disarming all militia in Lebanon, including Hezbollah. Perhaps the only way to accomplish that is by invoking Articles 42 and 43 under Chapter VII of the UN Charter to allow for the use of armed force in the event of Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm. While this chapter was written to address the matter of recalcitrant states threatening international peace and order, there is no exclusion for applying it to non-state actors that undermine peace and threaten aggression as Hezbollah has done throughout its more than 35-year history.
Given the devastation and death of the 1975-1990 civil war, neither Lebanon nor the international community wants to see the nation plunged once again into war. However, failure to disarm Hezbollah virtually ensures that Lebanon remains in the vice grip of Hezbollah, regardless of what happens to the existing political elites. Needless to say, such a task is much easier said than done. It will require the extraordinary efforts and cooperation of armed forces, security forces and courts of many governments around the world. It must also ensure the safety, security, wellbeing and future of the people of Lebanon.
There can be no liberating Lebanon without removing the armed leverage of Hezbollah. Disarm Hezbollah and end Lebanon’s occupation.