In a surprising result, infamous Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s coalition came out on top in the Iraqi elections. Despite the firebrand politician’s rocky relationship with the US, al-Sadr’s win presents a “policy opportunity for the US,” according to former US Ambassador Gary Grappo.
A group of Iraqis celebrated in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square earlier this week, chanting “Iran is out, Iraq is free”. Their jubilation came after Iraq’s election commission announced preliminary election results that a coalition led by Muqtada al-Sadr, a vocal opponent of Iran’s influence in Iraq, had gained the most seats in Parliament.
The coalition of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi meanwhile only came in third, according to preliminary results winning about 42 out of 329 seats.
Mr. al-Sadr has been a major player in Iraqi politics since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. While he cannot become prime minister himself as he did not run for Parliament, Mr. al-Sadr could now become the new kingmaker in Iraqi politics. This would top off a remarkable transformation for a man whose militia fought many deadly battles with coalition and Iraqi government forces in the past.
The Shia cleric has in the last few years formed an unusual alliance in Iraq’s sect-driven politics, partnering with secular activists like the Iraqi Communist Party to stage mass protests against corruption and a lack of services. The Sairoun electoral alliance, led by Mr. al-Sadr, includes the communist party as well as smaller Sunni factions.
“Sadr’s championing of reform and new faces (since at least 2015) offered a message that resonated with a public that is fed up with the corruption, dysfunction and poor governance that has gone on for 15 years,” says Fanar Haddad, senior research fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore.
A crucial factor for Mr. al-Sadr’s relative success “seems to have been the record low turnout”, adds Benedict Robin, a researcher specializing in Iraqi affairs. “The Sadrists are among the few Iraqi political actors with a sizeable, fairly coherent and stable social base. Consequently, they appear to have benefited from their rivals’ failure to mobilise support.”
However, in Iraq’s political system, post-election maneuvering can be as important as forming alliances before the polls, meaning that Mr. al-Sadr’s influence could be diminished despite having gained the most seats (reportedly 54). As The World Weekly went to press, official results had not been announced. Early reports that employees at several election commission offices in Kirkuk province were being held hostage could delay the final figures further.
From firebrand militia leader to self-styled reformist
Mr. al-Sadr’s trajectory in the last decade and a half has been a story of changing roles and methods.
The scion of a powerful Shia Muslim family of clerics, his family background brought him influence and power. Shortly after the US-led invasion in 2003, Mr. al-Sadr, then in his early 30s, formed the Mahdi Army, a militia that targeted coalition forces and Sunni extremists alike. Officially disbanded in 2008, the militia is said to have operated death squads responsible for the deaths of many civilians during Iraq’s dark days of sectarian violence.
Despite retaining a large follower base, Mr. al-Sadr was subsequently sidelined by Iranian-backed groups, many of which participated in the military campaign against Islamic State (IS) militants. For several years, he went into exile, studying at a theological seminary in the Iranian city of Qom. He eventually returned to Iraq and in 2014, Mr. al-Sadr announced the formation of the Peace Companies (Saraya al-Salam) to protect Shia shrines from the IS onslaught.
Recently, he has refashioned himself as the figurehead of large protests against corruption and a lack of services. As Saad Janabi, a secular Sunni member of Mr. al-Sadr’s alliance, told one researcher, “Muqtada al-Sadr is the only person who can summon one million people with a single call.”
His alliance with the communist party “has roots which stretch back further than most realise”, Mr. Robin told TWW. He points to tensions within Shia Islamist power circles and Mr. al-Sadr’s efforts from 2010 on to set up cultural institutions, “which he hoped would become a platform for building ties between the Sadrists and Iraq’s secular-leftist and liberal cultural domains”.
Throughout the years, Mr. al-Sadr, in public dressed in clerical robes, has presented himself as a counterpoint to the political elite in Baghdad. Various observers have described his skills as having been able to keep a ‘close ear to the street’ throughout the years. A video on election day showed him walking alone to the polling station down an empty street.
COUNTERPOINT
Despite his carefully crafted image, Sadrist lawmakers have been part and parcel of the post-2003 political machinery. As is the case with other parties, they have been accused of having used control over ministries for patronage and financial gain.
International reaction
Mr. al-Sadr has been a thorn in the side of foreign powers, including the US and Iran. Nevertheless, some see the unorthodox cleric’s rise as an opportunity.
“Saudi Arabia and its allies see Muqtada al-Sadr’s showing in the Iraqi elections as a potential pathway to remove Iranian influence from Iraq and to bring Iraq closer to the Arabian Gulf states,” Theodore Karasik, senior advisor to the Gulf State Analytics consultancy, told TWW.
Iran remains the most powerful foreign power in Iraqi affairs, but under King Salman and his ambitious son Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, ties between Baghdad and Riyadh have improved. Mr. al-Sadr met Crown Prince Mohammed in Jeddah last year, his first visit to the kingdom since 2006, to discuss improving bilateral ties.
There has been talk of the Saudi crown prince visiting Najaf, the seat of Iraq’s most senior Shia clergy. “Riyadh’s focus on Iraq’s Shiite community is important,” says Dr. Karasik, “because the kingdom is attempting to splinter Shiite communities outside of Iran.”
For Washington, Sairoun’s success presents a challenge and an opportunity. Historically, Mr. al-Sadr “has been a staunch opponent of US involvement in Iraq,” says Gary Grappo, a former US ambassador who served as minister counselor for political affairs at the US embassy in Baghdad. However, he told TWW, Mr. al-Sadr recently stated that he would respect training and exercise commitments between the two countries.
Ambassador Grappo stresses that factors like Mr. al-Sadr recently moderating his messaging, reaching out to moderate Sunnis, and speaking out against Iranian influence as well as corruption present a “policy opportunity for the US”.
“From the American perspective,” he says, “a coalition between al-Sadr’s Sairoun alliance and current Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s Victory coalition would seem the most favorable.” Other coalition partners, he adds, could include the National Wisdom Movement (Hikma) – led by Shia cleric Ammar al-Hakim – the Sunni Wataniyya coalition and Kurdish parties.
While their interests in Iraq have overlapped at various points, for example during the fight against IS, Iran’s large influence in Iraq since 2003 has often been a dilemma for Washington. In this election Tehran would have preferred other political parties to succeed, such as the Fatah alliance and the State of Law coalition led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, says Seyed Ali Alavi, an Iran expert at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London.
Nevertheless, he told TWW, “a stable government in Baghdad is in Tehran’s interests, hence, it seems Iran is willing to work with the winners of the election as part of its pro-Baghdad strategy.”
According to local media reports, Tehran sent Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s powerful foreign operations Quds Force, to Baghdad to try to form a “friendly government”.
The race is on
Amidst the fanfare about Mr. al-Sadr’s victory, who will become Iraq’s new (or old) prime minister will be the subject of much political wrangling. With around 54 seats, the Sairoun alliance cannot dictate who will become the next prime minister.
Potential candidates include incumbent Prime Minister al-Abadi, his predecessor Mr. al-Maliki, a controversial figure in many circles, former Shia militia leader Hadi al-Ameri, a close ally of Iran, and various, internationally lesser known figures backed by Mr. al-Sadr.
Among others, Prime Minister al-Abadi and Mr. al-Ameri, the head of the Fatah coalition, congratulated Mr. al-Sadr on the Sairoun coalition’s electoral success in a potential sign that cooperation might be possible.
No matter who will take the reins of power for the next four years, massive challenges await, even for the keenest reformer: Corruption remains a widespread phenomenon. A persistent lack of services, including no reliable electricity, will come to the forefront again as another summer approaches. To many observers, the low voter turnout in this election (at around 44% of eligible voters) showed how deep the divide between ordinary citizens and the elite remains in Iraq.
Rebuilding areas liberated from IS will require vast funds and concerted reconstruction efforts, epitomised by the stark ruins of western Mosul. What is more, attacks against security forces in recent months have shown that IS remains a potent security threat, despite having lost almost all of its territory in Iraq.
The coming weeks and months will also pose a test for the viability of Mr. al-Sadr’s broad alliance, says Dr. Haddad. “Ever since Sadrist cooperation with the communist party and ‘civic-protest’ groups began back in 2015, there have been fears that the Sadrists’ numbers, organizational capacity, political and religious power would overwhelm non-Sadrist partners.”
Its success or failure could indicate whether Iraq can move beyond its ethno-sectarian political system. Talks behind closed doors to form a government have already begun. Many more months of negotiations are likely to follow.